Currently, the world and its economy have taken a big hit because of the COVID-19. There are speculations that the global economy will reach its normalcy by the end of 2021. Economic experts think that it might take three years for complete global economic recovery. Famous economists at the HIS Markit suggest that considering the rate of contamination and the spread of the novel coronavirus, situations will worsen before getting better.
Hani Zeini shares relevant inputs on global economic recovery
While the world and its economy are walking towards recovery, there are multiple views, speculations, and expected outcomes to witness. Hani Zeini, a successful entrepreneur, has interesting perspectives to share and give us a clear picture.
More than $5 trillion 2-year international hit
Market reports suggest that the global pandemic will create a loss of $5 trillion and more in the global economy. It will happen in the next two years. A Wall Street banks warning declared that we are marching towards another severe recession, after the 1930s. Everyone thought that the downturn would have a lesser span, since lockdown kept everyone at home.
But many factors will excessively slow down the post-crisis recovery. Bankruptcies of big and small industries will pose challenges to the manufacturing sectors. Additionally, households’ and businesses’ financial setbacks will also delay people from getting back to their old way of spending.
The downturn will ease among other contractions
The downturn has started to ease the moment lockdowns were initiated, to stunt the spread of the virus. However, many economies will experience contractions on the Q2 business cycle in 2020. Despite the unparalleled fiscal and monetary stimulus, many economists have asserted that the gross domestic product might return to the pre-COVID-19 state by the end of 2021 or by 2022 latest. The existing fear amongst people might postpone “normalcy” in life and business and extend to the travel sector.
Several market experts and researchers have warned that in spite of any forceful policy response, the GDP will get back to pre-pandemic levels by the Q3 of 2021. Global banks have alerted the European and US economies for being below $1 trillion below the pre-COVID-19 estimations by 2021.
Economic recovery by early 2022
Global financial giants have witnessed massive losses. JPMorgan Chase & Co. had placed the lost output to about $5.5 trillion, which sums up to approximately 8% GDP for the next year-end. The cost to developed economies points similar to the recession back from 1974 to 1975 and 2008 to 2009. Data suggests that the fastest one can anticipate the output in major economies to the pre-COVID-19 times, is the first half of 2022. Some economies might witness this in the latter half of 2022 as well.
However, all these speculations of getting back to normalcy will take place provided everything goes correct. If the infection rates increase or resurge after flattening down of the curve, the recovery trends will worsen and delay. The recent instances of resurgence in China and South Korea are disturbing. However, economists, brands, businesses, and others can only expect that the economy and life return to normalcy by 2021 to 2022.
Hani Zeini, founded Sientra in 2006 and has since held the position of President and Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Zeini has over 24 years of relevant healthcare experience in Pharmaceuticals and Medical Device industries, and is an 11-year veteran in the Aesthetics and Plastic Surgery market. He previously served as Executive Vice President of Inamed Aesthetics responsible for both the Breast Aesthetics and Facial Aesthetics businesses at Inamed Corporation (now Allergan Medical). His responsibilities included North America and International markets, with a demonstrated success record of market share gains and business growth in these highly competitive markets. @hmzfun